Groundless Leonine Prognostications

 

Remember back after the 2013 conclave when papolaters were predicting something called the "Francis Effect"? The Francis Effect was supposed to be a worldwide Catholic renewal brought about in the wake of Jorge Bergoglio's accession to the chair of Peter. All sorts of nonsense was predicted: a boom in vocations, lapsed Catholics returning to the faith, global missionary successes, mass conversions—all flowing from the luminous example proferred by His Humbleness.

Of course, this was all nonsense. The real Francis Effect ended being something quite different. Plunging vocations. Belief destroyed. The faithful confused. Churches shuttered. Liturgy wars, financial malfeasance, and administrative chaos. Lío within, lío without.

The disaster of the Franciscan pontificate was a lesson in how reckless it is to make such wild predictions about something like the rise of a new pontiff—especially one a incompetent as Francis. Yet papolaters in 2025 have not learned, for we are already seeing wild prognostications about the pontificate of Leo XIV, who, at the time of writing, is about three days into his reign. And people are again predicting what amounts to a "Leo Effect" soon to be expected.

The vision emerging around the "Leo Effect" seems to relate to the pontiff's ancitipated influence within the American church in particular. Things I am hearing is that Pope Leo's influence is about to cause:

• The American church is about to have a boom in priestly and religious vocations.
• Pope Leo is going to issue a new condemnation of Americanism.
• We are about to undergo a renaissance of American Catholicism.
• Leo is going to reunite the Latin and Greek churches

I heard a homily today wherein a priest was educating the congregation on "Pope Leo's spirituality and vision for the Church" based on some torturouesly exegeted passages from Leo's first homily. I mean, it would be one thing if he had said, "I've been following Robert Francis Prevost for years and am extremely familiar with his life and spirituality." But no...just another guy who had no idea who Prevost was until Thursday but is a sudden expert. He had no clue about Pope Leo's spirituality let alone his "vision for the Church." What ridiculous hubris it is that makes everyone want to feel like they have some insightful take on what is or what will be?

I sincerely hope many of these things do indeed come to pass. I know nothing about Pope Leo, but I will say that he seems like a geuinely good man—a person who loves Christ and is possessed of authentic humility (unlike his predecessor Pope Humble the Merciful). I can also say that I felt sincere paternal affection when Leo stepped out onto the loggia. I know my feelings don't matter, but I felt a distinctively different sentiment when Francis stepped out in 2013, something more akin to dread or foreboding. I documented these feelings here, which were shared by countless other Catholics at the time (I encourage you to read the comments). I never thought Francis was good news, not even once—and yes, of course in my mind, I gave him the benefit of the doubt as pertains to my judgment, but as pertains to my intuition, I simply never had a good feeling. And I had no clue who Bergoglio was either; Bergoglio and Prevost were equal unknowns. Yet the sentiment is distinctively different this time around; I have cautious optimism, and the few things I have seen so far give me hope. But I really people would stop with the dumb prognostications, the rank papolatry, and the reckless inferences. These sorts of things tend to age very, very poorly.